“Swing Seats and Strongholds: The Intriguing Dynamics of India’s Fourth Phase Lok Sabha Elections”

Eastern Crescent
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The fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections stands out due to its significant number of swing seats and strongholds, with 1,717 candidates contesting for 96 seats. Notably, 21 swing seats have been identified, including Amalapuram, Anantapur, and Visakhapatnam. Close contests are anticipated as 11 seats were won by less than 1% of the votes in the 2019 polls.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have surpassed the halfway mark in terms of seats. On May 13, the fourth phase will commence, featuring 1,717 candidates competing for 96 seats across 10 states and Union Territories. This phase is intriguing due to its substantial number of swing seats, where no single party has consistently won in the last three elections, alongside strongholds or constituencies dominated by one party during the same period.

"Swing Seats and Strongholds: The Intriguing Dynamics of India's Fourth Phase Lok Sabha Elections"
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India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit has identified 21 swing seats in this phase, spanning various regions. Additionally, there are 20 strongholds, including Mahbubnagar, Medak, Maval, and others. It’s noteworthy that while swing seats and strongholds are closely matched in this phase, the latter are fewer compared to previous polling phases.In the 2019 elections, phase four witnessed tight contests, with no party winning by more than a 40% margin.

Notably, only three seats saw victory margins of more than 35%. Furthermore, 11 Phase-4 seats were won by less than one per cent of the votes, indicating fierce competition.The BJP has been gaining ground in Phase-4 seats since 2019, with its seat share increasing significantly. Conversely, Congress has experienced a decline in its performance. In 2019, the BJP gained a vote share of more than 40% in 43 seats, while Congress received less than 10% of the vote share in 43 seats it contested.

"Swing Seats and Strongholds: The Intriguing Dynamics of India's Fourth Phase Lok Sabha Elections"
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The intriguing aspect of this election lies in the palpable shift in the political atmosphere, where traditional dynamics seem to be evolving. This could signal a turning point or a new chapter in the political landscape. But whom do you think will win this election? It is anyone’s call. Let’s wait for 4th of June.

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