Attack on Iran: Understanding the Reality and a New War on the Diplomatic Front
US’s Inversion to the War and the Attackers Worried themselves; Permanent Peace is Essential!

By: Dr. Mohammad Ajmal
Assistant Professor Centre of Arabic and African Studies School of Language, JNU, New Delhi

After the recent war between America, Israel and Iran, the world is undergoing rapid changes. These changes are also having profound effects on India. This war has badly affected the economies of the world, both large and small. The fear is that if this war is not ended immediately, the world will see further economic turmoil. At present, the energy crisis, including oil, petrol and diesel, has badly affected the economies of the world. Everyone and all are among these victims. While the direct impact of this crisis is being felt in all sectors, it has also come to the fore in the form of a huge economic burden on the common people. In such a situation, the world, including India, also wants the war campaign of America and Israel to be stopped somewhere or the other. Because the war was started by America and Israel and Iran’s response has come into it in retaliation. Hence, the initiative to end the war must be taken by America and Israel.

Although Iran says that the war was started by the US and Israel, while we will end the war. The biggest aspect of this war is that it has engulfed the entire Middle East and the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, have serious reservations about Iran’s attacks on American installations in their countries. Nevertheless, Iran’s position is that if American bases in the Gulf countries are used against Iran, then we have the right to attack these bases. In such a situation, on the one hand, the US and Israel should stop, and on the other hand, the conflicts in the Middle East countries, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran, should be ended. Because if this war creates conflicts between the Gulf countries, these regions may fall into further crisis. That is why some countries are currently trying to find a middle path between Saudi Arabia and Iran and other Gulf countries.

Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, are now realizing that the American bases they built in their respective countries are creating more problems for them than for America itself. The Gulf countries have their reservations about Iran, but they have not come out to directly condemn the way the US and Israel have imposed war on Iran. Their condemnation is in subdued words, which shows that they themselves are also victims of American pressure. Similarly, the way Saudi Arabia and Iran were close in past, they need to be brought closer together in recent time. There is a need to dispel the growing perception in the Gulf countries that Iran could pose new threats to them in the future.

This war by the US and Israel on Iran have pushed the Middle East into a vortex where power and arrogance are being defeated by the US. Israel is worried, but the Muslim world is also in predicament. Before the attack on Iran, the impression was initially given that this action was simply to limit Iran’s nuclear program, but within a few weeks it became clear that this war was not limited or one-sided, but had turned into a major, permanent battle and now nothing is happening according to the US wishes. The world has also been divided. The US allies are also worried because this war has not only shaken the balance of the region but has also put the attacking powers themselves, in a new impasse.

The figures reveal the intensity of this war and its human tragedy. According to Iranian sources, more than 1,500 people have been killed in the attacks since February 28, including more than 200 children. These are lives that have been sacrificed in the clash of world powers. On the other hand, Iran’s recent retaliatory attacks have created an extraordinary situation inside Israel. A total of more than 150 people have been injured in the missile attacks on the southern cities of Dimona and Arad, many of whom are said to be in critical condition. The destruction in Israel is also very high, but due to media censorship, news from Israel reported less. In this war, the most important aspect is the failure of Israel’s defense system, the Iron Dome, which was considered impregnable, has failed to completely stop these attacks.

The Israeli authorities’ admission that the interceptor missile failed to hit its target actually reveals a major strategic weakness. This failure has not only created fear and panic among the Israeli public but has also called into question its military superiority on the global stage, which is Iran’s great achievement. When a state, which links its security with the latest technology, cannot provide complete protection to its citizens, its effects are not limited to the battlefield but also its political and economic foundations begin to shake. This war is not proving to be the right decision for the United States either. Despite the tough ultimatums and threats given to Iran by President Donald Trump, the United States is practically in a difficult and serious situation.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, has become the focal point of this conflict. Iran’s threat to close this vital shipping lane has thrown the global economy into a state of uncertainty. If this lane is closed, a sharp increase in oil prices will be inevitable, with severe effects on Europe, Asia, and developing countries. Thus, for the United States, this war has become not just a military campaign but also an economic challenge. Iran’s strategy has assumed particular importance in this whole situation. Despite its apparent weakness, the response that Iran has given has somewhat leveled the balance of power. Iran wants to make it clear that it cannot only defend itself but also respond aggressively. That is why it has targeted sites that are considered highly sensitive to Israel, such as the Dimona area where its nuclear program is concentrated. The aim of this strategy is not only to take revenge, but also to prevent such attacks on Iran in the future, while it is a challenge for Israel. Iran has made it clear that the war will continue with full intensity and force until the complete surrender of the enemy, and its advance will continue until the complete victory of Iran, the fighters and the resisting front.

The most regrettable aspect in this whole situation is the absence of the Muslim Ummah. On the one hand, the major countries of the Muslim world remain silent spectators, and many Americans are even flattering them, while on the other hand, the political differences between them are so deep that they are unable to reach a common thought. If Muslim countries were united on a platform today, not only would the nature of this war be different, but global powers would also been forced to review their policies, and if Muslims had come together to confront the kind of weakness that the West has been exposed to, peace could have been established in the world at the first place. Despite its oil wealth, geographical importance and human resources, the disintegration of the Muslim world is such a tragedy that it has made it ineffective in global warfare and politics.

It is not difficult to imagine how different the situation would have been if the Muslim Ummah had been united. Through a common defense strategy, coordinated diplomacy, and economic cooperation, not only could its interests be protected but also a strong position could have been adopted on the global stage. However, unfortunately, this is not the case, and this is why the role of the Muslim world in today’s critical time has been limited to mere statements and condemnatory resolutions. The effects of this war on the global level are also rapidly emerging. The risk of the war spreading is constantly increasing and there is a fear that this fight may engulf other countries as well. If this happens, it could turn into a wide-ranging regional war with very devastating consequences. Then, due to the targeting of nuclear facilities, there is also a fear of a nuclear crisis, which could pose a threat to the entire world.

Ultimately, it can be said that the situation that emerged after the attacks on Iran has proven that the balance of power is not always one-sided. The United States and Israel, who were starting this war to prove their superiority, are now themselves caught in a difficult, complex and uncertain situation. On the other hand, Iran, despite its limited resources, has shown that even great powers can be challenged through resistance and strategy. This war is both a lesson and a warning. The lesson is that power does not lie only in weapons but in unity, wisdom and determination, and the warning is that if the Muslim Ummah does not reflect on its current situation, it will continue to be a helpless spectator in similar crises in the future that could lead these countries to complete destruction. Now the question arises why the attackers themselves are worried. The answer is that the attackers are worried today because the war has become an uncertain quagmire out of their control, where each attack is giving rise to a new threat. The step taken in the name of superiority is now becoming a burden upon them. This is the principle of history that the misuse of power eventually backfires.

Now the Iran-US-Israel war has entered its 28^thday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have announced that “they will continue missile attacks on Israeli and US military bases to avenge the blood of all their martyrs, reaffirming their determination that they will no longer remain silent. Iran has the legal right to defend itself. After the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, military bases, children’s schools and strategic locations by the US and Israel, retaliation is inevitable in order to prevent the enemy from further aggression”.

On March 23, Iran targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, which is a major hub for US military activities. A spokesman for Iran’s Khatim al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said that US spy planes at Prince Sultan Air Base were targeted with ballistic missiles, while the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain was also targeted with missiles and drones. On the other hand, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that “if the US or Israel targets the power centres, we will also target their power centres”. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards further said in a statement that “any threat will be responded to at the same level, if Iranian power plants are attacked”, they will target the power plants that supply power to US bases, including Israeli power plants.

It should be noted that after the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, important military centers and ports, Iran responded by raining missiles on various Israeli cities and the Israeli nuclear center of Dimona and Arad, resulting in reports of large-scale deaths and destruction, while Iran has also successfully targeted the F-35 aircraft, which is considered a symbol of American military power and pride. Iranian Air Force Commander Ali Abdullahi has warned that “targeting the American F-35 aircraft was only the first surprise, more surprising actions are yet to come”. Ali Abdullahi has further said that “they will overturn the enemy’s estimates with new and modern weapons”. On the basis of these statements, Iran’s military doctrine has changed from defensive to offensive, and the strategy has also been adapted accordingly.

The American news agency Bloomberg has revealed that sixteen American warplanes have been destroyed so far in the war against Iran. According to Bloomberg, the aircraft destroyed in the war against Iran include 10 Reaper strike drones, while six American warplanes were severely damaged, which are in addition to the 16 American planes already destroyed. Bloomberg reported that three of the US warplanes were shot down over Kuwait, allegedly by friendly fire. According to Bloomberg, a KC-135 tanker plane was shot down during a refueling operation, killing all six of its crew. Another five KC-135 tanker planes were hit by Iranian missiles at an airport in Saudi Arabia, causing significant damage.

On the other hand, after European countries refused to provide Trump with any kind of cooperation to end the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, US President Trump has threatened Iran with severe consequence if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Trump says that the US will destroy various Iranian power plants in stages, first targeting Iran’s largest power plant. Iran responded to Trump’s threat by saying that if Trump does so, US energy infrastructure in the Middle East will be targeted. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says that the US and Israel are responsible for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement, Araqchi sent a message to the US and Israel that they will not be intimidated by threats on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Abbas Araqchi said that the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is due to the war that the US and Israel started. Addressing the US and Israel, he said that the responsibility for the disruption of the sea route does not lie with Iran, but with these countries. The Iranian Foreign Minister added that neither any insurance company nor Iran will be subjected to further threats. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, while declaring unconditional support for Iran, has congratulated Iranian leaders on Nowruz and said that Russia stands with Iran.

He said that Moscow is a loyal friend and reliable partner of Tehran, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that agreements cannot be imposed by force in the Middle East, the United States only prioritizes its own interests. Sergei Lavrov says that the world is returning to the law of force, weak countries have to bear the losses. The seriousness of the war that the United States and Israel have imposed on Iran can also be gauged from the fact that now China and Russia have openly expressed their concern over this fire being ignited in the Middle East. Both countries have warned of the possibility of war with Iran and the situation spiraling out of control. In Beijing, China warned that the situation in the Middle East could spiral out of control after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened. “If the war spreads and the situation worsens, the entire region could enter a situation that spirals out of control,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said in response to a question about Trump’s threats.

In Moscow, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russia opposes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but such issues should be seen in the context of the overall situation. The Russian Foreign Ministry added that “Moscow hopes that the United States will be wise enough not to fire on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in response to Trump’s ultimatum.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko called on the US and Israel to stop their aggression against Iran, stressing that this would help normalize the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. It can be clearly seen from the above situation that the US and Israel’s plan to subdue Iran in a few days by considering it an easy target has been shattered. If the US still does not realize the reality, the ongoing war may take a catastrophic turn, the effects of which will not be limited to the region alone, but the entire world, including the US, will be affected by its implications.

The dramatic developments in the Middle East have shocked the world. US President Donald Trump, who gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum, has now announced that Washington and Tehran have held very positive and productive talks in recent days, aimed at finding a complete and final solution to the ongoing tensions with Iran. He also said that a possible military attack on Iran’s energy and power facilities has been postponed for five days. President Trump said, “I am pleased to announce that over the past two days, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have held very positive and constructive talks to fully and finally resolve the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. In response, Iran said that if Trump did so, America’s energy infrastructure in the Middle East would be targeted.

It should be noted that last week, President Trump also made it clear that he was not interested in an immediate ceasefire with Iran, but he did not rule out the possibility of negotiations, saying that we can talk, but do not want a ceasefire. But he surprised the world by announcing a five-day ceasefire all of a sudden. On the other hand, Iran on Monday rejected US President Donald Trump’s claim that Washington and Tehran were holding talks to end the war. According to the state-run Mehr news agency, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has clarified that no talks are taking place between Tehran and Washington. The ministry added that the US president’s statements are actually part of an attempt to reduce energy prices and buy time for his military strategy.

The Foreign Ministry also said that steps are being taken by some countries in the region to reduce tensions, but Iran’s position is clear that it did not start this war, so all such demands should be made to Washington. On the other hand, the Iranian news agency “Tasnim” reported that an Iranian official said that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war condition and global energy markets will continue to be subject to uncertainty. The official also clarified that no negotiations are taking place with the United States. The report further states that Trump backed down from the plan to attack Iran’s key energy infrastructure due to pressure from financial markets, while Tehran has warned that it will continue its defensive actions until effective deterrence is achieved.

The tragic situation is that despite US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day ceasefire, Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure and also targeted the gas pipeline of the Khorramshahr power plant. According to the Iranian news agency, the attack targeted the gas administration building and gas pressure regulation station in Isfahan. However, in this toxic atmosphere of war, the welcome thing is that efforts to resolve the issue through negotiations and discussions have also intensified. According to the American news agency, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt are actively working for a ceasefire. An American source was quoted as saying that “the foreign ministers of the three countries held separate talks with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.” A source familiar with the details said that “mediation is ongoing and progress is being made. The talks revolve around ending the war and resolving all outstanding issues.

The fact of matter is that the intensity with which Iran has responded has surprised not only the US and Israel but also the entire world. Despite all their efforts, the US and Israel have failed to achieve their goals. Iran’s missile attacks on US bases and Israeli cities have paralyzed Israel’s defense system, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also created a new energy crisis. Political tension and public backlash have emerged within Israel itself. The US has also come to realize that the economic losses of this war can shake the entire world, which is why a five-day ceasefire has been announced. Iran, through its determination, courage, and unparalleled resistance, has proven to the world that a lion respects only iron claws and that in this world of the powerful, respect is only earned by those who know the art of demonstrating their strength. At the same time, The US president has admitted by saying: “It would be a big mistake to consider Iran weak, the leadership is smart and also has extraordinary negotiation skills”. The US President has sparked a new global debate by claiming Iran’s military weakness while acknowledging the Iranian leadership’s negotiating skills. According to experts, these statements indicate that the situation in the region has become very complicated and could change diplomatic or military course at any time.

On the other hand, a senior Iranian official told the British news agency that he had reviewed the American proposals received through Pakistan. Iran believes that the American proposals are unilateral and unfair. The Iranian official said that the American proposals are only in the interest of the United States and Israel. The United States had given Iran 15 proposals for a ceasefire, which Iran not only rejected as inappropriate, but also put forward its own five conditions for a ceasefire. In fact, Iran’s conditions for a ceasefire are so stringent that Trump is unlikely to agree to them. Iran’s conditions include the removal of US military bases in the region, the lifting of sanctions on Iran, and Iran’s control of key sea routs. The interesting thing is that when none of Trump’s threats worked, he automatically gave Iran a five-day reprieve. Today, when that reprieve expired, he gave Iran another 10 days.

Trump’s aforementioned statements coincided with a report published by ‘Axios’ indicating that the U.S. Department of War is preparing a “knockout blow” against Iran, should the diplomatic track—mediated by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey—fail to yield results. This effectively presents Tehran with a stark choice: either submit to Trump’s terms under the threat of assassination, or face a range of punitive measures, including a ground invasion of some of its islands and the seizure of its oil tankers east of the Strait of Hormuz. These developments present frightening scenarios for both Iran and the entire region, ranging from the option of declaring surrender or to a shift by U.S. forces toward a full-scale ground invasion of Iran. Such a move would usher in a phase of extreme peril, not only for Iran and the Gulf states but also for the entire world.

Now, while, this ongoing war between Iran, the US and Israel reached complete one month which has shaken all previous concepts of global politics, economics and international law. In such a situation, the announcement by US President Donald Trump to stop attacks on Iranian energy facilities for another ten days is news that is being seen with mixed reactions at the global level. Although it is being described as a limited ceasefire or a strategic pause, the most important question is whether these ten days will help in permanently stopping this process of destruction or is it a pause to prepare for the next major attack? A permanent ceasefire and a complete cessation of bilateral attacks are indispensable for negotiations between the warring parties, because it is futile to expect any lasting solution without a peaceful environment. It is difficult to estimate the damage that a month-long war has done to the concept of civilizational evolution and the wounds it has inflicted on humanity. According to statistics, more than 3.2 million people have been displaced in just four weeks, which is a huge humanitarian tragedy. In a country where providing basic necessities of life was already a challenge due to economic sanctions, the flood of millions of refugees is creating a major famine and medical crisis. The international community must understand that wars are not fought only on the front lines, but their biggest targets are innocent civilians who have nothing to do with politics. On the economic front, this war has engulfed the entire world and in a short period of one month, a record increase of more than 50% has been seen in global oil prices, while gas (LNG) prices have increased by more than 140%. This energy crisis has dealt a severe blow to the economies of all countries, regardless of developed or developing. A new storm of inflation is knocking on the doors of the world, while each country will have to bear the consequences of the global supply chain being badly affected at its own level. If this war drags on, the chances of the global economy recovering will be further diminished. Therefore, ignoring the fire burning in the Middle East as a mere regional conflict would be tantamount to economic suicide on a global scale.

In this grave situation, neutral countries need to intensify their efforts to bring Iran and the United States to the negotiating table for peace and stability, and some countries have even become active in this process. The fact cannot be denied that the use of force cannot solve problems, but understanding and negotiations are the only way to achieve lasting peace. Although President Trump’s recent announcement to stop attacks on energy facilities for ten days is welcome, it should not be a new tactic. This ten-day period is a golden opportunity for the parties to abandon provocations and open the doors of diplomacy. Wisdom demands that a solution be found that is acceptable to all parties and that ensures border security and regional security on both sides. It is time for the United Nations and other world powers to move beyond rhetoric and into action. This limited ceasefire will be meaningless unless it is transformed into a permanent peace agreement.