Iran’s Recent Unrest and Allegations of External Involvement
In deteriorating situation, America’s threat to Iran for attack a double standard and amidst sanctions to make more instable economically
By: Dr. Mohammad Ajmal
Assistant Professor at Centre of Arabic and African Studies
Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi
To dismiss the recent public unrest in Iran as a mere domestic issue or a temporary reaction is to ignore history. This unrest did not arise suddenly, nor is it rooted solely in recent inflation or currency devaluation. Iran’s current situation is the logical outcome of a long historical process, external interference, economic sanctions, and continued pressure. The countries that are making statements today in the name of the Iranian people have been rubbing salt in the wounds of this country for the past seven decades.
After coming to power, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, and reimposed tough sanctions on Iran. These sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy, devalued the currency, and caused inflation to severely impact the lives of ordinary people. This economic pressure is the root cause of recent public unrest. The unprecedented devaluation of Iran’s currency has fueled public anger over rising inflation and the economic crisis, sparking widespread protests across the country. The head of Iran’s central bank, Mohammad Reza Farzin, has resigned under pressure from the protests. According to media sources, the protests have spread to 70 cities, including Isfahan, Shiraz and Mashhad, with police using tear gas to disperse protesters in some areas in the early stages. The demonstrations are being described as the largest since 2022, when a wave of protests continued across Iran for months after the death of 22 year old Mahsa Amini in police custody. The cities where the protests are taking place are historically considered symbols of political change in Iran, as these markets were the center of popular movement during the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
According to eyewitnesses, many traders closed their businesses in protest and appealed to other shopkeepers to shutter down as well. According to the report, business activities have been severely affected. Another reason for Iran’s current inflation and economic crisis is the continuous depreciation of the Riyal, which has currently reached a level of 1.42 million Riyal per US dollar. It should be noted that when Farzin took office in 2022, the Riyal was worth about 430,000 per dollar. The sharp decline in the Riyal has led to a sharp increase in inflation, which is making food and daily necessities gradually more inaccessible to the public and mounting pressure on the household budget.
It should be noted that Iran has been under US sanctions since 1979. These sanctions began in November 1979 when Iranian students attacked the US Diplomatic mission in Tehran and took diplomats hostage. Later, the sanctions became more stringent over time. As a result of the long term economic, trade, financial and military sanctions imposed by the US on Iran, Iran’s economic situation has been severely affected, leading to poverty, inflation, increased unemployment and a decline in economic growth. Iran’s main source of income is oil exports, which have been severely affected by the sanctions. Furthermore, after the sanctions imposed in 2018, there was a huge decline in oil production and GDP, which has brought the economy to a standstill.
The recent protests in Iran have given Iran’s enemies, especially the US and Israel, a full-fledged opportunity to play the game. US President Donald Trump says he is considering possible military action against Iran in light of growing reports of a deadly crackdown on large scale antigovernment protests in Iran. The US will intervene if peaceful protesters in Iran are shot or killed through violence. On the other hand, Israel has also openly announced its support for the ongoing antigovernment protests in Iran.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar says that “Israel wishes the protesters in Iran success, that the Iranian people deserve freedom, and that Israel has no animosity towards the Iranian people, rather the problem is with the Iranian government. The Islamic Republic is a serious problem not only for Israel but also for the entire region and the international community”. In response to these statements by the US and Israel, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that “Iran will not bow to the enemy and that those who riot among the protesters will be kept within their limits”. In response to the US threat, Ali Larijani, an advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, said that “US intervention in the Iranian protest issue could spread instability in the region”. The US and Israel, who have long been eager for a change of government in Iran, are proving to be a golden opportunity for them.
If the US imposes war on Iran, it will be a war for Iran’s survival. In such a situation, Iran will come to the battlefield with all its might, shouting the slogan “No matter what, we will be victorious”, which will further turn the region, which is already unstable, into a volcano. The US attack will not just be an attack on Iran; the entire Middle East will be engulfed in the flames of war. Iran is located on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil used to pass. Any aggression will result in a sharp increase in oil prices. The atmosphere of distrust that has been created towards the US due to the role that the US has played in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, may make European countries not openly support the US in the event of an attack. In addition, the people who are on the streets in the event of an attack will forget their problems and become a leaden wall against the US because the people of Iran know very well that the problems and difficulties they are facing today are created by the US itself. The public cannot forget that wherever America has acted as a savior, it has been unable to deliver anything but destruction and devastation.
The current situation is also a test for the people of Iran themselves, whether they are victims of the enemy’s conspiracies or prefer national integrity. What is happening in Iran today and the conspiracies being made against Iran under the guise of these events, the Muslim world cannot support it in any way. Despite economic sanctions, Iran has been fighting long-term proxy wars at the regional level for a long time. Syria, Yemen, Lebanon are examples of this, due to which the growth rate of Iran’s economic development could not increase significantly, and this also proved to be a burden on the defense budget of the Islamic Republic.
In the current situation, America has once again openly shown its double standards and anti-Muslim hatred. Thousands of people were martyred as a result of the Israeli aggression on Gaza. Israel bombed the entire Gaza Strip in a horrific manner, turning it into a pile of rubble, as a result of which not only in Israel but also in the entire world, millions of people took to the streets to protest against Israel. However, despite this, America has not taken any action against Israel. On the contrary, in the case of Iran, Donald Trump is starting to feel the pain of human rights violations.
If America continues to behave in this way, the dream of peaceful coexistence in the world will never be realized. America’s aggressive ambitions are an attempt to create incitement in the Muslim world. America should remember that the flames of the fire it is trying to ignite in the Middle East will not be limited to the region alone, but the entire world will feel the heat of this fire.
Protests in Iran against the economic crisis that have been going on since December 28 have now taken the form of a political revolution. The ongoing protests in Iran are not just an economic crisis, but a clear sign of the growing distance between the people and the government. The effects of which may become more serious in the coming days. The riots in Iran, civil war and open US intervention have once again raised the specter of war in the region. US President Trump has threatened to attack Iran. The US says that Iran should stop its nuclear program and make a new deal with the US; otherwise it will have to face serious consequences.
On the other hand, the Iranian government says that it is far from accepting America’s proposal, and they will not even negotiate directly with America. As a result, the encirclement around Iran is being tightened. It should be noted that the responsibility for the recent tension between the United States and Iran lies with the America alone. In 2015, during the Obama administration, an agreement was reached between Iran and the United States regarding the nuclear program. According to the United Nations, Iran had fully complied with it, but in 2018, Trump unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the agreement and imposed terrible economic sanctions on Iran, and now preparations are being made to attack Iran using the agreement as justification.
If we look at it in historical perspective, after World War II, Iran’s role in the Middle East was similar to that of the Gulf States. On the one hand, it served as an American base against the Soviet Union and other socialist powers in the region. On the other hand, the West tried to keep the Middle East oil under the control of American and British companies instead of improving the internal situation in the region. This is why when Mohammad Mossaddiq was elected in Iran in 1951 and dared to nationalize the oil companies, these companies, along with the CIA and M16, overthrew Mohammad Mossaddiq’s government in 1953. After that, the dictatorship of Reza Shah Pahlavi was established, and even today, some liberals are defending this dictatorship.
While in reality, it was a terrible period under American rule in which thousands of people, from intellectuals to students, women, farmers and labor leaders, were accused of being socialists and massacred. In 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini came to Iran from France against the Shah and America succeeded in overthrowing Reza Shah Pahlavi. This was undoubtedly a huge blow to America and after that in 1980;USA and European countries attacked Iran using Saddam Hussein of Iraq. America also gave Iraq chemical weapons to destroy Iran and was ruined.
Despite all this, in 1990, the United States imposed the worst economic sanctions on its hero, Saddam Husain, due to which thousands of Iraqis were killed, but unlike Iraq, Iran could not be weakened. Iran found alternative trade opportunities for itself, with China, Russia, Latin America and some European countries being the top ones. Gradually, Iran’s growing economic and military power began to cause problems for the pro-American Gulf states and Israel in the region.
Once again, the US Threatens Iran! US President Donald Trump has freshly threatened to attack Iran, saying that various options are on the way, including military action in Iran. Our military is also reviewing this issue. We are taking this issue very seriously. According to sources, no one except President Trump knows what he is going to do. The world can wait and see. On the other hand, the US has urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reacted strongly to US President Donald Trump’s recent statement and said that the world’s tyrannical rulers lay the foundation for their downfall in the intoxication of ascendancy and arrogance.
In the context of this scenario in Iran, it is a welcome development that after the American threats, millions of people took to the streets across the country, and the people reaffirmed their determination to make every sacrifice for the defense and security of their homeland. In various provinces, including Tehran, different segments of the people participated in nationwide rallies against foreign-backed riots and terrorism and expressed their full support for the Islamic Republic of Iran and its system and leadership. Undoubtedly, these nationwide demonstrations proved to be a manifestation of national unity and solidarity in the face of the enemy’s conspiracies to create chaos and division. Participants in the rally said that the people have rejected the attempts to spread unrest through mercenaries and terrorists. The protests in Iran are Iran’s internal matter. People all over the world take to the streets for their rights, hold protests and demonstrations, which is their democratic right. Last month, millions of people in the United States took to the streets to demonstrate against Donald Trump, but calling the protests in Iran a justification for war is in no way consistent with international law.
The fact is that after the Iranian revolution, the Iranian leadership has been like a thorn in the eyes of the United States and Western powers. The United States considers Iran to be a serious threat to its own and Israel’s interests and the balance of power in the region. This is why its policy is to impose pressure, sanctions, and completely isolate Iran in the international community. Iran’s only crime is that it is not ready to accept American hegemony, nor does it consider Israel a legitimate state. This crime of Iran has become an unforgivable offence for the United States. That is why the US has imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports, Iranian assets are frozen, and foreign companies have been prevented from doing business with Iran. The US fears that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, the illegitimate existence of Israel, which it supports, will be endangered, and the balance of power in the Middle East will not be able to be maintained.
It seems that the US President is ready to go to any extent against Iran. After repeatedly threatening to attack Iran, Donald Trump has now announced tough economic measures against countries that have trade relations with Iran. He says that a 25% tariff will be imposed on all countries that trade with Iran. According to him, the US will not hesitate to take such tough decisions to protect its interests and all countries should take care of US policies. How brutal is this statement of the US President that all countries will have to take care of US policies, even if they themselves do not take care of international laws, human rights, and the UN Charter.
The civilized world should not support or endorse the rhetoric that the US President is expressing today in the intoxication of power. The US President’s behavior will push the world to the brink of destruction. The United Nations and the international community will have to take a bold stand to ensure the observance and supremacy of international laws, whose principle of the Might is Right will never allow the dream of establishing peace in the world to come true.
Although the Iranian people are helpless against the hardline policies of their government, this does not mean that they should hand over the fate of their country to the hands of America and Israel. They want an Iran that is free, independent, and modern. They want to see Iran moving with the progress of the world. They want freedom from oppression in the name of religion. They want to reform their system. There is a large segment in Iran that wants not only to maintain the current Islamic structure but also to strengthen it, for which they want to bring about major changes in terms of human rights, social freedom, and the economy. They want to bring about a revolution within the Islamic Republic. The second segment, in the form of the younger generation, is the one who believes that the current system is so rigid that it cannot be reformed, but they also believe in internal change rather than external intervention. They want to decide their own destiny.
Initially, these demonstrations were against inflation, but the Israeli Prime Minister and US President Trump made enthusiastic statements in favor of the protests, giving the impression that the Iranian people wanted freedom from the mullahs. The Iranian government is alleging that the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is behind these riots. More than 100 security officers have been killed during the protests, who have been targeted with small drones, small grenades and poison-filled pellets.
These weapons are allegedly being supplied by the Israeli army. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said in an interview with a private channel that anti-government protesters in many places are being led by Mossad agents. It is an undeniable fact that the main cause of the hardships of the Iranian people is the US sanctions. If Washington truly sympathizes with the Iranian people, it could provide them relief by lifting or easing the sanctions. But on the contrary, threatening statements and provocations have increased tension instead of peace.
It is not good diplomacy to exploit the unrest in a country. Today’s world has become a global village, where the instability of one country affects the entire region and even the world. In the case of Iran, history has repeatedly shown that force and sanctions are not the solution to the problem, but the root of the problem. If global peace is desired, then serious efforts to extinguish the fire are the need of the hour, rather it is ignited.
