Iran-US Negotiations: Apprehensions, Prospects and Expectations 

By: Dr. Mohammad Ajmal
Assistant Professor at Centre of Arabic and African Studies
School of Language Literature and Culture Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

On Wednesday, April 7, Iran and the United States agreed to a temporary 15-day ceasefire in the 39-day war, just an hour and a half before the ultimatum given to Iran by President Donald Trump expired. This two-week ceasefire has helped restore the series of negotiations that were broken by the US and Israeli attacks on 28^thFebruary 2026. Before this, there were reports of good progress between Iran and the US in Oman and later in Geneva. If the war had not started, it was possible that the US and Iran would have been able to resolve many disputes and concerns by now. Thus, the Middle East would have been spared the month-long tension and the world would have been spared the agony of uncertainty that was caused by the severe inflation of energy and concerns about the future.

The US president had threatened to destroy Iran in his ultimatum. After Trump’s speech in April 2, there was a stir across the world, including the Middle East and South Asia. It was clear that the acceleration of US and Israeli attacks on Iran would have devastating consequences for the entire region. To avoid this dangerous situation, heads of government in major capitals of the world were gathered. However, at the suggestion of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Iran and the United States agreed to a 15-day ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the region was saved from a major catastrophe. At the invitation of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, delegations from Iran and the United States arrived today and are holding talks in Islamabad to transform the temporary ceasefire into a lasting peace agreement.

The Iran-US talks that began in Islamabad are the third round of this series. There have been two rounds of talks between these countries before this, in June 2025 and February 2026, but on both occasions, Israel and the United States unilaterally attacked Iran during the negotiation process. This series of attacks continued until the current ceasefire. Therefore, as of now, nothing can be said about the future of this ceasefire and the Iran-US negotiations.

Before the formal start of the talks, US President Donald Trump, in line with his habit and nature, has once again threatened that in the event of any violation of the ceasefire agreement, powerful and severe attacks will be launched on Iran. Tehran acquiring a nuclear weapon or continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable under any circumstances. The US military will remain around Iran with its fleet and military force until a final agreement is reached. However, he also said that he is very optimistic about the peace agreement with Iran and that Israel is reducing attacks in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says that Tehran is determined to avenge the blood of its former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other martyrs. The people should stay on the streets. They do not want war but will protect their rights. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh says that Iran was about to respond to the ceasefire violation in the night9^th April, but Pakistan stopped it at the last minute. If the US stops its aggression, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Iranian President Masoud Peshmerga said that the continuation of the attacks would make the talks meaningless and warned that Iran would keep its hand on the trigger. Mohammad Eslami, head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, announced that uranium enrichment would continue and said that Iran would not agree to limit its uranium enrichment program. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and the head of the Iranian delegation nominated for the Islamabad talks, said that the price of violating the ceasefire agreement is heavy and it can lead to a severe reaction.

As far as the current negotiation is concerned, at a first glance, the United States will try to limit this development to preventing joint US and Israeli attacks on Iran in exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, while according to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s statement, the ceasefire also applies to the ongoing war in Lebanon, but a statement from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. This claim of the Israeli Prime Minister has been supported by the United States, therefore, just after consent on negotiation of Iran and the US, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to attack Lebanon severely in which 250 people including children, women and elderly were killed. Keeping in mind, this war has not received public acceptance in the United States, and not only Trump’s public support has dropped by a third because of it, but his opposition is also growing in congressional circles due to his repeated U-turns and use of un-parliamentary language against Iranian politicos and IRGC officials.

Since the US and Israeli attacks in June 2025, Iran has seemed to be moving towards reducing tensions and normalizing the situation. This is why they have shown so much flexibility on the issue of uranium enrichment in this year’s talks that, according to those familiar with the situation, they have almost given up their old position. This time too, the 10-point proposals that the Iranians have put forward, and on which President Trump has agreed to the talks, have taken a vague position on uranium enrichment, which indicates that there may be a compromise between the parties. However, in the 10-point draft, the Iranians have placed over the table two demands that the US and its allies will accept, which seems difficult. One of them is the withdrawal of US troops and military equipment from US bases in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. The US has about two dozen naval, air and military bases in the Gulf, countries and surrounding waters, such as the Red Sea, the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, which are home to an estimated 40,000 US military and other personnel.

The US Central Command (Centcom) air base in Qatar and the naval base in Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet, which is responsible for defending the Middle East, are particularly important. The remaining bases are in Kuwait, the UAE, KSA and Iraq. The bases in Cyprus in the Mediterranean and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean can also be used for operations in the Middle East. In addition, the Seventh Fleet, based in the South Atlantic and Southeast Asia, can be called upon to participate in operations in any part of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, with its aircraft carriers, destroyers and nuclear-armed submarines.

This strategy of strengthening the defense of the Indian Ocean through military bases at important strategic locations is an invention of the Portuguese nation, who were the first European nations to set foot on the coast of India towards the end of the fifteenth century. When the British began their gradual conquest of India in the eighteenth century, they also adopted the same strategy, but rather expanded it further by establishing a chain of naval bases in Suez in the west and the Straits of Malacca in the east, Aden, Sri Lanka and Singapore.

After the Second World War, the United States took over the responsibility of defending the entire region and the chain of military bases it has established in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, some old and some new, is also based on the same strategy that was laid down almost 500 years ago. During this period, this defense strategy of the Indian Ocean and the Middle East has been so successful that the United States has strengthened it even further. Therefore, the United States will not give up these bases at the request of Iran.

Secondly, these bases are established on the basis of bilateral agreements between the United States and the countries concerned. But like the British bases, American bases cannot remain in this region forever. Like British imperialism, one day the Americans will have to leave this region. This 39-day war with Iran has paved the way for this day to come soon because it has become clear to the Gulf countries that despite spending billions of dollars, these bases could not protect them from the Iranian missiles.

After military bases, the second major issue on which the US and Iran may disagree is Iran’s demand for complete control over the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow passage of through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, is divided into two parts: Iran and the Sultanate of Oman and the territorial waters of Oman. Before the war, tankers passing through it did not face any restrictions or tolls, but the recent war has highlighted its importance. Therefore, both Iran and Oman may demand an international protocol for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, similar to the Bosporus or the Suez Canal. However, this will be strongly opposed not only by the US but also by its European allies.

Nonetheless, Iran-US talks in Islamabad are a development of extraordinary importance. During this 39-day war, about 3,000 people in Iran have been killed. There were also many losses in the Gulf countries that faced with the worst security problems in its history; this region was considered an example of progress for the world. The ceasefire and negotiations initiated by Pakistan have paved the way for a way out of this nightmare. Apparently, both the US and Iran realize this, as can be gauged from the statements of US Vice President JD Vance, who has reached Pakistan to lead the US delegation in the negotiations. These statements reflect a very encouraging and ready-to-progress mindset. Before leaving for Pakistan yesterday, he had expressed hope for positive negotiations with Iran and said that “we are looking forward to constructive talks with Iran,if Iran negotiates in good faith, we are also ready”. The negotiating delegation from Iran is being led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Baqir Qalibaf. Both figures are serious, experienced and wise. Abbas Araqchi has previously represented Iran in the talks in Oman and Geneva. Meanwhile, US President’s Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have also represented the US in the talks in Oman and Geneva. The involvement of Baqir Qalibaf and JD Vance is new, and the world’s best wishes are that today’s talks in Islamabad hopefully will lead to major progress.

While Iran has suffered unprecedented human and financial losses at the hands of the US-Israeli alliance and their combined power, on the other hand, the US has clearly seen Iran’s strong defense system, missile power, and public spirit in this war. The lesson of the situation is that the continuation of the war between the parties is extremely harmful to both sides, the region, and the world. The end of wars and lasting peace can provide ideal opportunities for human development. Today, no sane person in the world supports this war. Not even those who have suffered greatly in this war. The fire of war cannot be quenched with more fire. It is foolish to waste it when the parties have an opportunity for an honest resolution. The US and Iranian negotiating delegations certainly realize this; Therefore, they should make every effort with sincere enthusiasm to find a dignified solution to this crisis. This is in the interest of both Iran and America. There is no good in continuing to fight, nor does it diminish the power. The advantage is in preserving power, not in building it.