Under America’s War Ambitions! Increasing Western Pressure on Iran and the Changing Dynamics of the Region
By: Dr. Mohammad Ajmal
Assistant Professor at Centre of Arabic and African Studies
School of Language Literature and Culture Studies, JNU, New Delhi
The demonstrations that began on December 28, 2025, with the closure of markets due to economic and financial problems and the fall of the dollar, quickly turned violent. Details of the protests were mostly reported by Western media outlets, which are puppets of Israel and the US and sell a one-sided narrative of the unrest. They have portrayed it as the most organized and largest in Iran’s recent history, but in reality, it is not. However, the recent economic and political unrest of 2026 was less intense and profound than the 2019 and 2022 uprisings. However, this time, the violence was more intense than ever.
The US, Israel, and their notorious agencies were active in these demonstrations whenever there has been protest in Iran, the US and Israel have actively involved in it and sought to bring about regime change. In the recent unrest, President Trump incited protesters to occupy government buildings. Mossad and CIA agents openly participated in the protest, Mossad’s own Twitter account announced that Mossad was on the ground with the protesters. Many people were then seen in the demonstrations carrying heavy weapons such as hand grenades, Kalashnikovs, and even RPGs, which are used to target tanks, armored vehicles, buildings, or fortified targets. Attempts were then made to attack and seize government offices, police stations, and missile storage facilities, resulting in an increase in the death toll due to the escalation.
The exact number of deaths in the recent riots is difficult to determine, but one thing is certain: the 15,000 or 17,000 that the Western media is reporting is nothing more than misinformation and false propaganda. The reason for the inflated number may be President Trump’s statement that the United States could attack Iran if the killing of protesters increased. After the Israeli lobby’s incitement in the Western media, the race began to exaggerate the number of deaths in order to increase the pressure on President Trump to attack Iran. It should be remembered that a significant number of the dead, around 200, are security personnel who were killed while defending missile, army and police stations that were attacked in a systematic manner.
The younger generation of Iran is certainly not very happy with the government, but the recent riots were not the result of a women’s or youth uprising, but were caused by economic and financial reasons. The United States and Israel tried to hijack and give them a different direction. The Iranian government shut down the internet and Starlink, cutting off contact with the miscreants. A great effort was made to escalate these riots through Starlink. About 40,000 terminals were used on this occasion. Iran’s cyber security force, with the help of Russia, blocked them through jammers. The shutdown of Starlink is being considered a major success for Iran because Elon Musk, the owner of starlink also has the same political agenda as Trump.
Is the US and Israel’s postponement of the attack on Iran permanent or temporary and momentary? The buzz is that Netanyahu met with President Trump, in which he was urged not to attack Iran for the time being. The reason was that the crackdown on the protesters by the Iranian government after shutting down the internet resulted in the arrest of a large number of Mossad agents. Due to this, the Mossad network could not be fully operational inside Iran. In the event of an attack, there was no hope of receiving a response from Mossad within Iran that could make the attack unsuccessful.
The United States and Israel want to divide Iran on ethnic, linguistic and sectarian grounds. Iran is a multi-ethnic state in which there are Persians, Azeri, Kurds, Baloch, Arabs and Turkmen. In order to weaken the center of Iran (Tehran), the US and Israel want to spread and weaken Iran like Syria by increasing instability around it, eliminating the current government setup. For this, nationalist sentiments should be raised in the Kurdistan and Azerbaijani regions in the north and given political identity. Destabilization should be brought about through armed groups in Sistan and Baluchistan in the south and southeast. In the west and east, ISIS and Takfiri elements should be used against Iran to embroil Shiite Iran in a sectarian war.
The Soviet Union was also broken up in a similar way. The USSR was also a multi-ethnic federal state where each nation had the constitutional right to secession. Where communism was ideologically very strong and the economy was the decisive factor. There, the previously powerful center, Moscow, was ideologically weakened. Communism as an ideology lost its moral appeal. Economic stagnation created a shortage of goods. Nations were already state units, armies became ideologically neutral, and states began to secede as soon as they got the chance. The US wants to repeat the same formula in Iran, but the situation is different in the Persian state. There are ethnic identities there, but no province is a completely separate state. The Revolutionary Guards have ideological, economic, and military power and are firmly connected to the Supreme authority. In the Soviet Union, the West put pressure from outside and it began to collapse from within. Despite severe external pressure in Iran, the internal disintegration is not at this level. Despite the decline of the dollar and inflation in Iran, poverty is not so high there. There is complete alienation between the center and the periphery in Iran, and people are not ideologically broken with the revolution. In short, Iran has not yet become the Soviet Union. It is unlikely to break up at the moment. Internal political and economic reforms can save Iran from breaking up.
Iran is once again at a critical juncture in history where the triangle of internal unrest, economic decline and external pressure has emerged as a major challenge to Iran’s Islamic Revolution. In fact, the Iranian people have been taking to the streets in the past against inflation, unemployment and political oppression, but the recent protests have come against a backdrop when Iran is facing direct military, diplomatic and economic pressure from the US and Israel and indirect military, diplomatic and economic pressure from Western countries. The real fuel of these protests is not ideological but economic because the biggest problem for ordinary Iranians is not the nuclear program or foreign policy, but bread, electricity, gas and employment.
Global sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy. The sanctions that were temporarily lifted after the 2015 nuclear deal were re-imposed by Britain, France and Germany, and their effects directly affected the people. Food prices rose by more than 70 percent in 2025. In such a situation, public anger and resentment against the government were natural. Despite all this, the impression that the Iranian government is going to fall immediately is not correct. The biggest reason for this is the complete loyalty of the security institutions. The Revolutionary Guards, which are not only a military organization but also an economic and ideological force, are a strong pillar of Iran’s revolutionary system. This institution, consisting of more than 150,000 armed personnel, is directly accountable to the Supreme Leader and has all three means of defending the system: power, wealth and ideology.
US President Donald Trump’s continued threats to Iran, consideration of military options and announcement of imposing 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran have taken the pressure to a new level. Trump’s rhetoric sometimes gives hope to protesters and sometimes threatens disastrous consequences, which has further increased uncertainty in the region. Iran’s largest oil buyer is China, and US relations with China itself are in a delicate balance. In such a situation, it will not be easy for Washington to put China up against the wall on the Iran issue. Similarly, countries like Iraq, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are also major trading partners of Iran. The effects of this situation are also being felt outside the region. For example, for India, Iran is not just a trading partner but also a strategic route to access Central Asia and Russia. If India backs down due to US pressure, it will directly benefit China, which is already strengthening its partnership with Iran. In Pakistan’s context, trade with Iran is largely informal, so the immediate effects may be limited, but long-term regional instability is not in Pakistan’s interest. Informal fuel shipments, border trade, and regional security are all linked to this crisis.
The most painful aspect for Iran is that it does not have clear support from the Muslim world at this critical time. Over the past four decades, Iran’s sectarian expansionist policies, proxy wars, and interference in the Arab world have isolated it. Iran’s role in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Bahrain has made many Muslim countries suspicious. That is why today, when the United States and Israel are openly talking about regime change, the Muslim world is silent. The biggest weakness of the opponents of the Islamic regime under the leadership of Ali Khamenei, the political and spiritual successor of Imam Ruhullah Khomeini, is the lack of credible leadership. The limited popularity of the son of the Shah of Iran cannot fill this gap. However, if internal pressure, economic crisis, and external interference converge, the Iranian government’s problems may increase.
The overthrow of the 46-year-old revolutionary government in Iran, which the US and its allies are calling regime change, has been America’s desire since day one. The past four decades have witnessed that America has not missed any opportunity to overthrow the revolutionary government of Iran. From the Iraq-Iran war to increasing its hostility with Arab countries, America has tried to undermine Iran at every opportunity. Similarly, under the guise of economic sanctions, no opportunity has been missed to cripple its economy. In this process, America has received clear and public support from all Western countries. In this situation, the Islamic countries have never dared to step forward and lay hands on Iran’s head, a major reason for which has been Iran’s expansionist ambitions based on sectarianism. Even during the American attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan, when there were good opportunities to settle scores with America, Iran did not adopt the strategy that could have won the hearts of the Islamic world. Likewise, the Islamic countries of the region have also been complaining about the actions it has continued through its proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain and Yemen. This is why now that the Western pressure on Iran under the leadership of the US has increased to such an extent that there are public threats of regime change through force, no clear and loud voice is being raised in support of Iran from any Islamic country.
Even if Iran apologizes for past mistakes while repairing its relations with some Muslim countries, this will not be a bad deal in the context of the challenges facing its survival. Rather, this behavior could also form the basis for joining a potential defense alliance with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Therefore, if Iran were to take some practical steps to reconsider its relations with these three countries, it would perhaps not only be able to withstand the potential aggression of Israel and the United States and the pressure of Western countries, but it could also be expected to secure the entire region, which is on the brink of destruction and disintegration.
On the one hand, the United States has sent its warships to Iran, while on the other hand, the US Cent com commander has suddenly arrived in Israel to discuss cooperation, military contacts and possible security strategies in the context of the Middle East with senior defense officials there. This visit is considered important in the context of recent tensions because military movements in the region are rapid and the US is increasing discussions with its allies. The large force sent to Iran also includes warships and aircraft. Foreign media quoted US officials as saying that a carrier strike group and other troops have left for the Middle East, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, warships and warplanes. US President Trump says that they are keeping a close eye on Tehran, a force is being deployed as a precaution, let’s see what happens next, while the head of the Revolutionary Guards says “that in the event of any attack, they will respond immediately, the enemy should not be misunderstood, our hand is on the trigger of the weapons, the US and Israel should understand that the result of miscalculating our strength will not be in favor of them. He said that after the 12-day war, our enemies must have at least realized that in the event of an attack on us, they will have to face a dire situation, which they will regret later. He further said that the Iranian forces are better prepared than before and if the Zionist state or the US hatches any conspiracy, it will be responded to very strongly. Iran has clearly and bluntly warned about the situation that has arisen, saying that if they are attacked, it will be a full-scale war and they are ready for the worst”.
Regarding the departure of the naval fleet to Iran, the US president says that the purpose of this deployment is to force Iran to adopt appropriate behavior, but he is also trying to avoid a military conflict. Interestingly, he has previously indicated that he will reduce tensions with Iran. Trump has shown some softness in his “toughest” stance on Iran in recent statements. He has indicated that he may prefer negotiations or a deal over direct confrontation, but he remains committed to a “policy of peace through force.” Iran has called Trump’s change in tone “psychological warfare.” Analysts say the Trump administration is adopting a two-pronged strategy, with both a show of military force being used to pressure Iran and a desire to keep the door open for diplomacy to bring Iran to the negotiating table on new terms. The Pentagon says the deployments are for defensive purposes only, to protect Israel and other U.S. allies in the region and to secure global oil supply routes.
The fact is that Donald Trump, through the contradictions between his words and actions, has destroyed the trust in the United States. On the one hand, he is trying to convince the world that he is a peacemaker and wants to establish peace in the world. He also claims that he has played a key role in establishing peace in the world by stopping five international wars and that he should have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for this outstanding performance.
Recently, he has also established an institution called the “Board of Peace” for peace in Gaza, but it is impossible to deny the fact that the US President is proving through his actions and arbitrary decisions that he refuses to accept any principle, rule, law and regulation. He has openly expressed this by saying, “No law can stop me, only my morality can stop me.” Such statements by the US President clearly show that he does not consider any international law, rule and regulation, even the UN Charter, to be of any importance to him. The US has also formally withdrawn from the World Health Organization (WHO) after 78 years, which has completely ended America’s practical relationship with the WHO. Despite the presence of the UN, Trump has ruined his ambitions by forming an institution called the Board of Peace, which is why major countries have chosen to avoid joining this board. China has clearly announced that it will not join the “Board of Peace” established by the US. China says that it is committed to giving centrality to the UN system and adhering to the principles of international law and the UN Charter. The question is, what is the US bothered about Iran? Why is it weighing up an attack on Iran? The fact is that the US considers Iran a challenge to its global system. It wants to rule completely. The US wants to impose its threat on the entire world so that no country can stand up to it. Iran’s crime is simply that it wants to live as a free and sovereign country among the civilized countries of the world. It wants the right to its own defense and security. Iran wants to establish relations on the basis of economic development and equality. An independent Iran is not acceptable to the US in any way. Not only Iran, the US has a complaint against any country that ignores its orders, that does not join the US camp and independently formulates its foreign, economic and defense policy. Iran is among those countries that are not ready to bow to American pressure in any way. In addition, America does not want to see Iran emerge as a powerful state in the region. Israel’s defense and security are America’s top priority, and America believes that Iran is the only force in the region that can pose a threat to Israel’s illegitimate existence. America should understand that no one can be subdued by force, an attack on Iran will turn the entire region into a volcano, and the dream of forging peace in the region will never come.
